内容提要

• 奢侈品牌亟需在创意、品牌价值感、定价、运营等方面制定清晰的策略和执行方案。
• 贝恩认为，当下的困境并不会削弱中国内地市场对于奢侈品牌的吸引力。
• 长期来看，中国市场庞大的奢侈品消费群体仍然是全球奢侈品消费的重要增长引擎。

贝恩公司今日发布的《2024年中国奢侈品市场报告》显示，2024年中国内地奢侈品市场未能延续增长势头，预计2025年中国内地奢侈品市场表现将与2024年持平。

报告指出，受消费者信心不足、出境游复苏、消费外流加剧等因素影响，2024年中国内地个人奢侈品市场销售额预计下降18%-20%。其中，第三季度降幅最大，第四季度有所改善，主要由于一系列刺激经济的措施出台，带动消费升温。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示：“中国内地奢侈品市场正处于一个充满不确定性的时代，奢侈品牌面临生存求变的关键节点。预计很多品牌或将陷入低迷，但部分品牌仍会保持增长。对于大多数奢侈品牌而言，未来的战略重点将从扩张和提高价格，转为销售网络整合与绩效提升。”

从品类来看，此次市场寒流波及了所有奢侈品品类，其中珠宝和腕表品类表现最差，主要由于消费者偏好转向了其他保值资产和体验型产品。

海南离岛免税市场

海南离岛免税市场也受到影响，2024年客流和客单价双双下滑，导致海南离岛免税销售额下降约29%。由于全球旅游业复苏，其中邻近的日本和东南亚国家复苏势头尤为强劲，吸引了部分消费者。此外，国内电商平台激烈的价格战带来了额外的竞争压力，尤其在美妆个护领域。报告指出，海南免税市场面临的不确定性依然存在：一方面，海南预计2025年底实现全岛封关；另一方面，海南依然面临着内地市内免税店扩张以及邻近市场的抢客压力。

贝恩报告还研究了海外奢侈品消费和代购发展趋势，发现2024年奢侈品消费外流现象进一步加剧。

从数据来看，境外市场占中国消费者奢侈品消费总额的比例提高至40%左右。其中，中国消费者在欧洲市场的奢侈品消费额已恢复至2019年的约50%，亚太地区则达到了2019年的约120%。但境外市场的增长仍不足以抵消内地市场的下降，导致2024年中国消费者在全球的奢侈品消费总额下降7%左右。

价差是驱动中国内地奢侈品消费者前往海外（尤其是日本）购物的主要原因。报告援引一项对中国内地、法国和日本市场热门产品的抽样研究结果指出，各大品类均有较为明显的价差。汇率也是一个重要原因，2024年全年日元对人民币最低汇率下，日本和中国内地的奢侈品价差最高可达30%。

为了应对价差问题，过去一些奢侈品牌采取全球定价策略，尽可能抵消汇率波动带来的影响。2024年，更多奢侈品牌通过店内限购、在第四季度进行全球统一调价等措施来平衡价差。报告强调，在当前宏观经济环境不确定的背景下，迅速响应并采取行动以调控全球价格，是奢侈品高管团队任务的重中之重。

代购发展趋势

在韩国，政府和奢侈品牌持续打击代购，同时，日元贬值吸引了大批游客前往日本，导致韩国免税店销售额同比下降3%，其中客单价下降了40%左右。

此外，根据Re-Hub对品牌的追踪数据，2024年中国内地奢侈品代购销售额整体增长约5%。汇率优惠、折扣及促销机制等因素拉动了小规模或个人代购，但是大规模或专业代购平台能够通过批发渠道获得较大的进货价格优势，因此批发渠道更有可能成为代购的主要货源。以服饰和皮具箱包为例，代购平台上品牌产品销售额占其中国内地官方渠道的营收比例跨度很大，从15%-25%到60%-70%甚至更高。这主要取决于品牌批发渠道的规模以及管控力度。Re-Hub的数据显示，2024年代购平台上畅销产品的价格与去年相比下降了8个百分点，让人不禁担忧代购会进一步损害奢侈品牌在中国内地市场的营收潜力和品牌价值。

报告认为，奢侈品牌必须在战略层面上重视代购带来的问题。中国市场应与总部及全球各地区紧密合作，共同管控全球批发业务，减少价差，以此控制代购对内地市场销售带来的风险。此外，品牌应继续着力提升在中国内地市场上的客户关系管理、售后服务和整体客户体验，促使消费者通过官方渠道进行购买。

展望未来

报告认为，2025年上半年中国内地奢侈品市场依然会面临挑战，但我们对下半年的市场前景持谨慎乐观态度，预计2025年全年表现将与2024年持平。

贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微表示：“未来几年，出境游的持续复苏预计将对中国内地奢侈品市场施加进一步压力。面对不确定的外部环境，奢侈品牌亟需在审时度势的同时，修炼内功穿越周期，在创意、品牌价值感、定价、运营等方面制定清晰的策略和执行方案。但贝恩认为，当下的困境并不会削弱中国内地市场对于奢侈品牌的吸引力。长期来看，中国市场庞大的奢侈品消费群体仍然是全球奢侈品消费的重要增长引擎。”

点击下方报告名称或右上角PDF按钮下载

中文版：《2024年中国奢侈品市场报告》

English Version：2024 China Luxury Report

Abstract

• Lower consumer confidence and rebound in overseas shopping resulted in a 18-20% decline in domestic luxury spending in 2024.
• Challenging H1 and improving H2 should result in an overall flat trend in 2025.

China's luxury market failed to maintain its previous growth trajectory and saw a sharp deceleration that worsened throughout 2024. The market is expected to stay flat in 2025, according to Bain & Company's latest China Luxury Report.

China's luxury market saw an 18-20% year-on-year decline in 2024, reverting to 2020 levels due to low consumer confidence and increased overseas spending as international tourism picks up. The third quarter saw the worst performance, with a slight improvement in Q4, mostly driven by announcements of the forthcoming stimulus measures, and the expected impact on consumption.

“The downturn is primarily driven by lukewarm consumer confidence driven by economic uncertainty and a decline in real estate value, a shift in spending toward overseas markets, and a reluctance to accept frequent price increases by brands without well-justified value propositions,” said Bruno Lannes, a Greater China-based senior partner at Bain & Company.

“The market is going through an era of turbulence and uncertainty, where widespread underperformance may become the norm, with only a few brands emerging as winners. Most brands will likely need to focus on footprint consolidation and performance improvement measures instead of expansion and price increase.”

All luxury categories faced declines in 2024. The jewelry and watches segment faced the most significant challenges, as consumers are shifting their preferences toward other value-preserving assets and experiences.

Hainan's duty-free market continues to face competition

Hainan's duty-free sales fell by approximately 29% in 2024, influenced by a reduction in both traffic and basket value due to global tourism recovery, particularly to nearby destinations such as Japan and Southeast Asia. It also faced intense competition from domestic e-commerce platforms, especially in the beauty category. The implementation of key policies for the Hainan Free Trade Port is still ongoing and is expected to continue in 2025; at the same time, Hainan will continue to compete with other new downtown duty-free shops and nearby destinations and needs to improve its overall luxury experience for travelers.

Price gap between domestic and other markets was a major factor in the resurgence of overseas luxury spending

The recovery of overseas luxury spending by Chinese tourists has been significant in 2024, where it accounted for 40% of total Chinese luxury spending. Specifically, spending abroad in 2024 reached about 50% of 2019 level in Europe and exceeded 2019 level to around 120% in Asia Pacific. However, the increase in overseas shopping did not offset the decline in onshore sales, resulting in an overall decrease of 7% in total Chinese luxury goods spending.

Pricing disparities between luxury goods in the Chinese mainland and other markets, particularly Japan, was a major factor in the resurgence of overseas luxury shopping in 2024. A sample analysis of key products across the Chinese mainland, France, and Japan revealed significant price differences across various categories, making luxury shopping abroad even more appealing, especially under favorable exchange rates. At the Yen's lowest point vs. the RMB, the price gap compared to domestic prices reached as much as 30%.

Historically, in response to this trend, some brands have implemented a global pricing strategy to offset most of the exchange rate fluctuations. This year, other brands addressed these price disparities by implementing purchase limits in stores and aligning new product prices globally (in the fourth quarter). Ensuring consistency in global pricing and swift reactivity should be a top priority for luxury leadership teams in this turbulent macro environment, according to the report.

Daigou activities could undermine revenue potential and brand equity

Ongoing government and brand actions against Daigou trading, as well as a shift in tourism flows towards Japan due to favorable exchange rates, have caused South Korean duty-free sales to decline by 3% year-on-year, with an average basket dropping by around 40%.

According to brands tracked by Re-hub, the overall grey market grew by approximately 5% in 2024. Favorable exchange rates, pricing discount, and promotion mechanism, have reignited the potential for small scale Daigou operations, however, the main source of supply is likely from large scale or professional Daigou that benefit from substantial pricing advantages through wholesale distribution channels.

In the fashion and leather goods categories, Daigou revenues as a share of official sales in the Chinese mainland could vary between 15-25% and 60-70% or more, depending on the brands’ size and control on their wholesale channels. Notably, discounts for the top products tracked by Re-hub on Daigou platforms have deepened by approximately 8 percentage points in 2024. This trend raises concerns that the grey market will continue to undermine revenue potential and brand equity in the Chinese mainland.

To counter this trend, Bain advices brands to prioritize their strategies against Daigou operations in 2025 and beyond. Business operations in the Chinese mainland need to collaborate closely with the global network to actively manage risks associated with Daigou. This can be achieved by optimizing wholesale operations worldwide, harmonizing price gaps, and focusing on enhancing customer relationship management, aftersales services, and overall client experience in the Chinese mainland.

“Following a turbulent 2024, we expect China’s luxury market to continue its downward trend through the first half of 2025, with a cautiously optimistic outlook emerging in the latter half of the year, resulting in an overall flattish performance for the whole year,” said Weiwei Xing, a Greater China-based partner at Bain & Company.