贝恩公司与意大利奢侈品行业协会Altagamma联合发布的最新《2024年全球奢侈品市场研究》报告显示，2024年全球奢侈品销售额预计将达到近1.5万亿欧元，与2023年相比基本持平，同比增速或将落在-1%到1%之间。

受经济不确定性和价格上涨影响，个人奢侈品市场增长略有放缓

面对宏观经济不确定性和奢侈品品牌频繁涨价，全球奢侈品消费者纷纷开始削减非必需品支出。贝恩公司预计，全球个人奢侈品市场将面临自大萧条时期以来的首次增长放缓（不包括疫情期间）。按当前汇率计算，全球销售额与去年相比预计将下降2%。

这一趋势直接导致奢侈品消费人群在过去两年中减少了约5000万人，尤其是以Z世代为代表的年轻消费群体，具体表现为对奢侈品品牌的拥护度逐年下降。与此同时，头部客户贡献的奢侈品消费额比例持续走高，虽然他们感觉品牌对他们的专属性正在不断弱化。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺表示：“尽管宏观经济存在不确定性，但奢侈品市场今年依然展现出非凡的稳定性，主要由于消费者对奢侈体验的热情不减。但在过去两年中，有5000万名奢侈品消费者自愿或被迫减少购买奢侈品，这意味着品牌亟需探索新的价值主张，通过提供丰富的创新体验和新颖的交流互动来赢回消费者，尤其是年轻一代。此外，品牌必须时刻将头部客户的体验和需求放在首位，营造惊喜满满的愉悦体验，同时构思创新的一对一专人服务模式。放眼所有消费客群，如何利用技术实现广泛的个性化将会是决定成败的关键。”

奢侈体验和体验型商品增长强劲

随着消费者将消费重心转向外出旅游和社交活动，他们更青睐个护、保健等悦己体验而非实体奢侈品，保证了奢侈体验的吸引力居高不下。同时，体验型商品也唤起了消费者的强烈兴趣，尤其是面向高净值人群的游艇、汽车、喷气式飞机等。

“小确幸”正当道，美妆和眼镜品类大放异彩

随着越来越多的消费者开始追求生活中的“小确幸”，以香氛为代表的美妆品类继续保持优异表现。眼镜品类也呈现出积极向好的发展势头，凭借丰富多样的品牌创意和高端眼镜专精品牌的崛起吸引了大量消费者。

珠宝销售同样表现强劲，表现尤其亮眼的是高级珠宝，以及美国珠宝市场。与此同时，腕表、皮具和鞋履品类的增长速度有所放缓，主要由于消费者面对消费降级的压力，在选购商品时变得愈发挑剔，但小型皮具配饰和入门级奢侈品仍受到Z世代消费者的大力追捧。

随着越来越多的消费者开始追求物有所值的购物体验，二手市场的热度也在直线上升，尤其是珠宝、成衣和皮具品类。

渠道趋势：折扣店取代全价店成为消费者的首选购物渠道

大多数奢侈品品牌的线下实体店正面临到店客流急剧下降的艰难处境。随着奢侈品消费进入性价比阶段，折扣店渠道取得了令人瞩目的销售增长，取代全价店成为消费者选购入门级奢侈品的首选渠道。与此同时，线上购物在经历了疫情时期的波动后，现在逐步迈向平稳发展。在消费者日益追求沉浸式、个性化和品牌专属体验的背景下，成功品牌可以凭借差异化的价值主张和丰富的店内互动体验，吸引更多客流回归线下门店。

区域市场：美洲、日本和欧洲奢侈品市场取得了亮眼表现

美洲：尽管消费者信心波动不断，且主要城市的客流增长有所放缓，但美国市场的季度销售数据仍呈稳中向好态势。美国以外市场的销售表现则呈两极分化。加拿大仍因为中国游客的缺失而烦恼，而墨西哥和巴西则呈现出积极的发展态势。

亚太：2024年上半年，由于日元汇率持续走低引发赴日旅游消费激增，日本奢侈品市场增长继续领跑全球。然而，随着各大品牌开始在日本进行不同程度的价格上调，这一势头最近有所减弱。相比之下，中国内地奢侈品市场增速急剧放缓，主要由于消费者信心低迷以及中国游客流向周边和欧洲国家，加之国内消费较为疲软，导致今年市场整体表现不尽如人意。

欧洲、中东和非洲：得益于入境游客的奢侈品消费潮，尤其是欧洲南部的一线城市和度假胜地，欧洲市场的季度销售额增长日益强劲，但正逐渐趋于平缓。而在英国和欧洲北部，游客流入带来的奢侈品销售额增长则较为有限。中东地区的发展态势也不尽相同，主要由于地区紧张局势影响了旅游目的地的选择。

新兴市场有望成为新的销售额增长来源，包括拉美、印度、东南亚和非洲。到2030年，这些市场预计将新增超过5000万名中上层奢侈品消费者。

预计到2025年，全球奢侈品市场将有所回暖，但这在很大程度上仍取决于重点市场的宏观经济发展形势。展望2030年，随着消费人群的不断扩大，奢侈品市场或将踏上长期向好的发展轨迹。

布鲁诺表示，“要想把握未来增长机遇，奢侈品品牌必须重新审视市场环境、重新激发品牌创造力、重新梳理品牌战术打法。这意味着回归品牌价值和行业本质：凭借卓越的工艺和创意以及独特的品牌价值推动购买意愿提升；营造有意义、有个性、有共鸣的客户关系和消费体验；以及运用各种科技手段赋能完美执行，使得人工智能科技在实现品牌价值主张上发挥至关重要的作用。”

Global luxury spending is expected to reach nearly €1.5 trillion in 2024, remaining relatively flat compared to 2023, with an estimated growth rate between -1 and 1% year over year. This is according to the latest luxury report from Bain & Company, in partnership with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers’ industry association.

Personal luxury goods market slows slightly amid uncertainty and price elevation

Global luxury consumers, grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty and continued price elevation among brands, are cutting back on discretionary items. As a result, Bain expects the personal luxury goods market to see its first slowdown since the Great Recession, excluding Covid, experiencing -2% erosion, at current exchange rates, compared to last year. This trend—particularly acute among Generation Z, whose advocacy for luxury brands continues to decline—has led to a shrinking luxury customer base by a magnitude of about 50 million over the last two years. Meanwhile, top customers continue to grow their share of luxury consumption, although they are progressively losing the feeling of exclusivity from brands.

“Luxury spending has shown remarkable stability this year, despite macroeconomic uncertainty, largely driven by consumers’ appetite for luxury experiences,” said Bruno Lannes, Senior Partner at Bain & Company. “And yet, 50 million luxury consumers have either opted out of the luxury goods market or been forced out of it in the last two years. This is a signal for brands that it’s time to readjust their value propositions. To win back customers, particularly the younger ones, brands will need to lead with creativity and expand conversation topics. Simultaneously, they must keep their top customers front and center, surprising and delighting them while rediscovering one-to-one human interactions. For all customers, it will be critical to double down on personalization, leveraging technology to achieve it at scale.”

Pockets of strong growth in luxury experiences and experiential goods

Luxury experiences continue to maintain traction as consumers shift spend toward travel experiences and social events, favoring personal treatment and wellness over tangible goods. Simultaneously, experiential goods, especially those geared toward high-net-worth individuals, such as yachts, cars, and jets, are garnering strong interest.

Beauty and eyewear outshine as consumers seek small indulgences

Beauty products, particularly fragrances, continue to perform well as consumers gravitate toward “small indulgences.” Eyewear is also experiencing positive momentum, with consumers drawn to widening brand creativity and high-end specialist brands.

Jewelry is holding strong, especially favored by the high-jewelry segment and by a remarkably positive performance within the US market. Meanwhile, watches, leather goods, and shoes have seen a slowdown as consumers downtrade and are increasingly selective about purchases, though small leather accessories and entry-items are still of interest for Generation Z.

As consumers seek value purchases, the secondhand market is gaining traction, with strong momentum on jewelry and heritage apparel and leather pieces.

Distribution trends: Outlets winning over full-price stores

As most brick-and-mortar luxury stores are suffering from plummeting walk-in traffic, the outlet channel is overperforming, driven by consumers' quest for value purchases. The channel is gaining popularity as a preferred entry channel into the market, with consumers downtrading from full-price environments. Meanwhile, online is entering a normalization trajectory following post-pandemic swings. In a context where consumers are increasingly seeking immersive, personalized, and brand-curated experiences, winning brands will drive traffic back to stores by delivering differentiated value propositions and broadening in-store engagement.

Regional breakdown: Bright spots in the Americas, Japan, and Europe

Americas: The US is showing green shoots with an upward quarterly trajectory, despite fluctuating consumer confidence and foot traffic slowing across key cities. Outside of the US, performance is more polarized. Canada continues to struggle with a lack of Chinese tourists while Mexico and Brazil see positive notes.

APAC: Japan continues to lead globally on luxury growth due to favorable currency rates and associated surges in touristic spending throughout the first half of 2024. Momentum, however, has recently slowed as pricing realigned. In contrast, the Chinese mainland has experienced a sharp slowdown, worsening throughout the year as domestic spending decreased due to lackluster consumer confidence and Chinese touristic outflows to nearby areas and Europe.

EMEA: Europe is showing stronger yet normalizing growth over quarters, with demand sustained by touristic inflows, particularly in tier-one cities and resort locations in southern Europe. The UK and northern Europe are seeing more limited luxury tourist inflows. The picture varies across the Middle East as regional tensions impact touristic inflows.

Emerging markets represent new potential avenues of growth—including in Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, and Africa—which are collectively expected to add more than 50 million upper-middle class luxury consumers by 2030.

Looking beyond 2024

The luxury market is expected to face a slightly improving context throughout 2025, though this is highly dependent on the unfolding macroeconomic scenarios in key regions. Looking toward 2030, the market will likely embark on a long-term positive trajectory, with an increasingly addressable consumer base.

“To secure future growth, brands will need to rethink their luxury equations, re-establishing creativity and blending old and new playbooks,” said Bruno Lannes, Senior Partner at Bain & Company. “This includes rediscovering their essence and embracing the foundational pillars of the industry: desirability fueled by craftsmanship, creativity, and distinctive brand values; meaningful, personalized, and culturally-resonant customer connections and experiences; and tech-enabled flawless execution, with Artificial Intelligence to play a paramount role across most areas of the value proposition.”