近日，贝恩公司发布2023年全球私募股权市场年中更新，研究显示，在经历了一年的相对沉寂后，全球投资者正在面临前所未有的迫切性。全球资本市场上的“干火药”（即待投资金）再创纪录：3.7万亿美元蓄势待发。同时有2.8万亿美元的未退出资产即将进入退出窗口期，创下历史新高，是全球金融危机期间的四倍多。

贝恩公司全球合伙人、大中华区私募股权和兼并收购业务主席周浩表示，从市场周期的经验来看，想要恢复和延续交易活动，买卖双方需要处于相对稳定的经济环境。目前，投资者对于标的行业和企业的未来五年发展前景的信心仍有待提高，但是，全球私募股权市场有望企稳向好的总体形势已经逐渐明朗，因此，投资者应当在合适的时机采取投资策略。

进一步看，在3.7万亿美元的“干火药”中，有75%为投资期不到三年的新资金。尽管达成交易，特别是大型交易并非易事，但是，随着商业银行收紧贷款，私募信贷正在不断崛起。此外，相较2022年，年化来看，2023年全球并购退出交易的金额和数量将分别下降54%和30%。在此背景下，对于资金短缺的LP而言，投入资本分红率（DPI，Distributed to Paid-in capital）已经代替IRR成为用于衡量内部收益率的新指标。

研究指出，当前，大多数的有限合伙人（LP）更看重流动性，而不是持有资产获得更多收益，因此，在未来数月，私募股权行业将重点关注向LP返还更多资本，比如，通过退出交易、普通合伙人（GP）主导的二级市场交易、股息资本重组或采用其它流动性方案，从而发挥资金的飞轮效应。

周浩说道，过去一年以来，伴随宏观环境改变，许多被投企业的投资逻辑也在很大程度上随之发生变化。展望未来，交易方应当把握当前的窗口期积极布局——通过评估未来几个月的退出环境是否有正向变化，以及是否要根据宏观环境来调整价值创造计划，从而来决定是出售资产还是继续持有。

投资交易方面

2023年上半年，全球并购基金的交易规模达到了2020亿美元，较2022年上半年下跌58%，年化来看，交易金额比2022年下降了41%。今年上半年共达成863笔交易，年化交易量比2022年下降29%。此外，附加交易持续在全球并购市场中占据重要份额，分别在上半年交易金额和数量中占比9%和56%。

退出交易方面

2023年上半年，全球并购退出交易额降至1310亿美元，较去年同期下跌65%。与2022年相比，年化退出交易金额和数量双双下跌，分别下降54%和30%。

根据研究，GP在出售资产方面的压力明显增加：由于积压了大量未变现资产，从而向投资者分红的速度放缓。并购基金持有的近六年以来的被投企业高达约26000家，GP亟需制定时间表和相应战略来释放这些企业中的未退出资产。其中，大多数的资产即将或者已经超过一般私募基金退出的五年期限，超过一半的资产持有时间超过四年，还有近1/4的资产持有时间超过六年。

募资活动方面

2023年上半年，全球私募基金募资额跌至5170亿美元，较去年同期下降35%。按年化数据计算，全球私募基金融资额和关闭基金数量较2022全年分别下降28%和43%。

过去十年来，全球私募基金募资额持续增长，2012年以来募集了近12万亿美元，但是，2023年的募资难度加大。一方面，LP仍处于周期性紧缩中，拥有大量尚未出资的承诺，另一方面，由于退出交易大幅减少，现金流处于负值区，且有近14000家私募基金争夺总计3.3万亿美元的资本，供需失衡较明显。需要注意的是，募资数据通常被视为滞后指标，或许无法完全反映GP目前的募资环境，实际上，一部分目前关闭的基金是在2021年或2022年启动或承诺的，而当时的环境更理想。因此，目前的供求水平或许更合适作为前瞻性的指标，由于当前可用资金规模加速放缓，不断加剧的竞争要求私募股权基金持续加强专业化募资能力建设。

Bain & Company’s Private Equity Midyear Report 2023 shows that after four quarters of relative inactivity, investors have ample incentive to get moving. With the clock ticking on a record $3.7 trillion in dry powder and buyout funds sitting on $2.8 trillion of unexited assets, limited partners (LPs) are feeling a liquidity crunch.

"Past cycles have shown that for dealmaking to rebound and continue, buyers and sellers need a reasonably stable economic environment – not necessarily an attractive one. And while investors need confidence in the five-year outlook for an industry and a company, a clearer picture is finally emerging. The global private equity market is hopefully stabilizing." said Hao Zhou, the Head of Greater China PE and M&A practices.

A recent survey revealed that most LPs are more inclined to choose liquidity today rather than hold out for incremental gains. This suggests that the industry's primary focus in the months ahead will be restarting the capital flywheel by increasing distributions to LPs—whether through exits, general partner (GP)-led secondaries, recaps, or other liquidity solutions.

“Unwarranted” concerns about too much dry powder

A $2.8 trillion exit backlog

Buyout funds alone are sitting on a record $2.8 trillion in unexited assets—over 4 times the level held during the global financial crisis. While investments were down, exits fell more sharply during the first half of the year, with 2023 annualized global buyout-backed exits on pace to drop by 54% versus 2022, and exit count is tracking toward a 30% decline. For cash-strapped LPs, DPI (distributed to paid-in capital) is becoming new the IRR (internal rate of return).

“The macro environment has shifted in the past 12 months, largely altering the assumptions behind many portfolio company deal theses.” said Zhou. “The decision to sell or hold an asset could come down to a pair of questions: Do you believe that exit conditions will be meaningfully different over the next several months? And does generating the return you were counting on require a value creation plan reset to account for all that’s changed on the macro front? Smart dealmakers won’t be betting on a wait and see approach, rather they know now is the time to make a move.”

• Investments: Buyout funds generated globally hit $202 billion in deal value during the first half of 2023, a 58% decline from the first half of 2022. Annualized, it netted out to be a 41% drop from 2022’s total. The 863 deals closed over the first half signal a 29% full-year decline from the pace in 2022, with add-ons continuing to represent a significant share of the global buyout market, accounting for 9% of total deal value in the first half of the year and 56% of deal count.

• Exits: GPs are feeling significantly more pressure on the sell side. Buyout managers have a backlog of unrealized assets that has slowed distributions to investors. Over the year’s first half, buyout-backed exits fell to $131 billion, a 65% decline from the same period a year ago. On an annualized basis, exit value is tracking down 54%, and exit count is off 30% compared to 2022. With about 26,000 portfolio companies sitting in buyout funds for almost six years, GPs need a schedule and a strategy to unlock the $2.8 trillion in unrealized value those companies represent. Most of those assets are coming up against, or have passed, the typical five-year timeframe for a private equity exit. Nearly one quarter have been held for longer than six years, and more than half have been held for more than four years.

• Fund-raising: After a decade of growth in private capital fund-raising, with nearly $12 trillion raised since 2012, 2023 fundraising has been unsurprisingly challenging. LPs remain in a cyclical squeeze, with a large amount of existing unfunded commitments, cash flow in negative territory due to the sharp decline in exits, and a notable supply/demand imbalance as nearly 14,000 private capital funds compete for an aggregate $3.3 trillion in capital. The value of global private capital raised in the first six months fell to $517 billion, a 35% decline from the same period a year ago. On an annualized basis, global private capital fund-raising is on trend to drop 28% in terms of value and 43% in terms of funds closed compared to full-year 2022. Fund-raising data can be a lagging indicator that might make the current environment seem better than what GPs are experiencing. This can be because some funds closing today were launched or committed to under better circumstances in 2021 or 2022. An even more forward-looking indicator is the current level of supply and demand. This current slowdown in available capital has come as a shock and increased competition is pressing funds to professionalize their capital-raising capabilities.