贝恩公司近期发布2023年全球奢侈品行业年中更新，研究显示，2022年全球奢侈品市场销售额达到3450亿欧元，预计2023年在此基础上进一步增长5-12%，达到3600-3800亿欧元。放眼未来，2030年，全球奢侈品销售额有望达到5300-5700亿欧元，大约是2020年的2.5倍。

研究指出，今年第一季度，随着通货膨胀缓解、跨境出游的恢复、欧洲本土消费者信心恢复、日本和东南亚市场受益于区域内旅游业繁荣，上述因素共同推动全球奢侈品市场积极发展。进一步看，各国和地区的市场呈现出一定的差别，比如，美国市场增长将放缓，欧洲市场崛起，亚洲市场将重新洗牌。

贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺（Bruno Lannes）表示，2023年以来，全球奢侈品行业进入了新阶段，品牌的制胜之道在于打造韧性增长。对此，品牌应当重点围绕四个方面来调整战略：第一，全面关注所有的消费者，无论是本土客户还是游客；第二，合理兼顾在不同国家和地区的曝光及宣传；第三，升级价值主张，优化入门级客户的服务和体验；第四，持续推动流行款、经典款和个性精品。

贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微表示，奢侈品正在进入“真自我”时代：一方面，消费者渴望表明自己购买奢侈品的目的不是炫耀或彰显地位，而是表达自身的独特性；另一方面，凭借稀缺性和长期升值的能力，经典奢侈品仍然受到消费者的追捧。这意味着许多新来者尽管表现出众，但是整个行业依然由巨头把控，这些品牌不仅有着辉煌的过去，还在持续成功。为了保持长久的竞争优势，品牌应当持有新生挑战者的态度——既要推广主打产品，又要秉持创始人精神，同时建立稳固的商业基础，从而维持长期增长。

全球各区域奢侈品市场表现

中国:

中国内地市场在第一季度恢复增长，预计今年将再次崛起，此外，一部分奢侈品牌将脱颖而出，重回2021年水平。香港和澳门是跨境出游恢复后内地游客首选的出境目的地，大量的内地游客以及地方政府的利好政策推动港澳奢侈品市场加速发展（2022年市场销售额约50亿欧元）。

亚洲其它地区:

亚洲奢侈品市场正在经历洗牌，新兴市场势头正盛，而一些老牌市场正在失去吸引力。在韩国，很多本土客户提高了海外消费的比例，同时，东南亚游客到来推动了韩国旅游零售业发展，这在一定程度上抵消了中国游客减少带来的影响。综合看，韩国奢侈品市场增速有所放缓（2022年市场销售额约210亿欧元）。日本成为亚洲奢侈品市场上的一颗新星：一方面，本土客户消费热情丝毫不减，另一方面，爆款饰品受到了入境游客的大力追捧。随着首批中国游客回归，日本奢侈品市场前景愈发明朗（2022年市场销售额约240亿欧元）。东南亚奢侈品市场不仅迎来了首批中国游客回归，还成为了俄罗斯游客的新宠。此外，该地区的游客和本土客户对于珠宝和腕表品类展现出强烈的购买兴趣，共同促进东南亚市场快速发展（2022年市场销售额约120亿欧元）。

美国:

由于经济不确定性和疫情补助终结，美国消费者正在减少消费。虽然头部客户没有停止消费，但是，随着国内外价差扩大，他们更倾向在国外消费，而那些偶尔购买奢侈品用以“装点门面”的“仰慕型”客户也减少了消费。在此情况下，个性精品和新款正装、礼服成为美国奢侈品消费者的购买重点。同时，奢侈品的消费中心在悄然变化：纽约和加州等传统消费“重地”逐步回归，而夏威夷和拉斯维加斯等度假胜地的消费虽然有所恢复，但仍未回归2019年巅峰时期的水平。

欧洲：

在头部客户的赋能下，欧洲奢侈品市场在今年年初取得强势开局，并在第一季度延续了良好表现。随着美国和中东游客的增幅放缓，被誉为“奢侈品购物天堂”的欧洲市场将迎来考验韧性的压力测试。值得一提的是，在过去几个月，欧洲市场迎来了疫情后首批中国游客，预计下半年将有更多中国游客重回欧洲。

细分品类和渠道表现

品类方面。“追求卓越”成为各大品类的共同特点：消费者崇尚“少而精”，他们推崇经典款和超豪华产品。以表现最好的腕表和珠宝为例。这两大品类的主要增长动力分别来自少数腕表巨头的经典款式和超豪华精品珠宝。同时，随着越来越多客户意识到经典手提包的资产属性，相关消费水涨船高。运动鞋在内的鞋履品类在亚洲市场受到追捧，但在欧美市场上的消费有所放缓。美妆方面，伴随小众产品崛起、免税渠道复苏，促进香水品类增长，此外，彩妆和护肤品也保持积极的发展势头。

渠道方面。体验型渠道和旅游零售渠道重新崛起，并且开始对其他奢侈品领域产生影响。由于客户渴望获得在店内购物的消费体验，以及消费者流向发生转变，促使单品牌门店销售额自2022年以来一直保持稳健增长。而在东南亚和日本市场的赋能下，旅游零售渠道迎来了复苏。此外，随着“科技一代”成为消费主力，叠加全渠道3.0模式赋能销售，直营零售渠道同样稳健增长。

展望未来：全球奢侈品市场的机遇和挑战

面向2023年，贝恩基于可能的市场发展情况预测了两类潜在情景：

乐观情景：随着中国市场复苏，欧美市场稳中有升，相较2022年，2023年全球奢侈品市场销售额或将增长9-12%；

务实情景：随着成熟市场放缓，对奢侈品消费产生不利影响，中国市场消费信心恢复，为本土奢侈品消费持续回暖打下基础。在这种情况下，相较2022年，全球奢侈品市场销售额或将增长5-8%。

未来三年，贝恩建议，为了满足日益增长的ESG监管要求，品牌应当重视产业链脱碳（即减少范围3排放），从而在业务增长的同时减少碳排放的绝对增长。此外，贝恩发现，生成式AI技术将对于奢侈品产业链（包括从分销到创意等）各个环节产生影响，尽管这些影响是片面的，但是将会改变所有职能的业务发展因素。因此，品牌若能快人一步使用新技术，将赢得竞争优势。

The personal luxury goods market posted a record year in 2022, reaching a market value of €345 billion, despite geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. This momentum persisted into the first quarter of 2023, achieving 9-11% growth over 2022. However, nuances across countries remain. These are among the findings of Bain & Company’s Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study - Spring 2023, presented with Altagamma, the Italian luxury goods manufacturers' industry association.

The study attributes growth in Q1 2023 to a number of factors, including: the gradual decrease of hyperinflation, recovering confidence of local consumers in Europe, and the positive momentum in Japan and Southeast Asia, bolstered by intraregional tourism. However, the picture is nuanced across countries.

"The luxury industry is experiencing a new phase after its post-pandemic growth, with renewed drivers of resilience establishing winners and losers. Brands who want to succeed need to focus holistically on consumers; balance their exposure across geographies; offer a high value proposition with elevated entry clienteling and experientiality at scale; and push on icons, timeless, and statement pieces." said Bruno Lannes, the Senior Partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai.

"Luxury is entering the ‘literally me’ era, marked by a desire to show ourselves moving beyond purely aspirational items, valuing uniqueness over status. Meanwhile timeless, iconic pieces remain coveted due to their scarcity and continuous appreciation. This means many newcomers are overperforming, but they are competing in a world of giants, who are also experiencing much success. To remain relevant in the long run, brands will need to continue to channel an insurgent mindset, championing hero products and their founders’ visions, while also tooling up to sustain long-term growth by getting the business fundamentals right." said Weiwei Xing, the Partner at Bain & Company based in Hong Kong.

Regional perspectives

The market in Chinese mainland, which saw Q1 growth, is expected to rise again this year, with some, but not all, brands back to 2021 levels. In the meantime, the Asian market is experiencing a reshuffling, with old and new luxury magnets. Hongkong and Macau posted a sharp acceleration as primary destinations for Chinese tourism, with additional tailwinds from government policies (~€5 billion market value in 2022). Southeast Asia continued its brilliant growth path, sustained by an influx of Russian tourist spending, the first arrivals of Chinese consumers, and a strong appetite for jewellery and watches (~€12 billion market value in 2022).

South Korea, on the other hand, is slowing down with a rebalancing of locals spending on purchases abroad and travel retail accelerating, due to inflows from Southeast Asia and despite limited Chinese arrivals so far (~€21 billion market value in 2022). Japan is the rising star in this landscape: local customers are keeping up their spending, and growth is coming from inbound tourists that are hungry for best-seller accessories, including the first signs of Chinese arrivals (~€24 billion market value in 2022).

Despite holding onto about $900 billion in unspent savings, US consumers are refraining from spending, due to economic uncertainties and the end of Covid relief funding. Top US customers are holding up, yet partially shifting their spending abroad as price differentials widen, and aspirational customers are spending less. In this context, US luxury consumers are focusing their purchases on statement pieces across categories as well as new formal and occasion wear. In the meantime, a rebalancing of the luxury map is taking place: the “giants,” such as New York and California, are coming back while holiday destinations, such as Hawaii and Las Vegas, are recovering yet still behind their 2019 peaks.

Europe has started the year off strong, with sustained performance in the first quarter, especially due to top spenders. The region, however, is awaiting “a moment of truth,” which will pressure test its resilience in the summer as locals face an end to their “luxury shopping haven”—the long tail of US and Middle Eastern tourists in the first half of the year is now expected to slow down. In the last months, Europe has experienced its first Chinese tourists back, with a solid return expected later in the year.

Top customers remain voracious across luxury categories

In terms of channels, experientiality and travel retail are gaining back shine, tapping into other luxury territories. Travel retail is finally recovering after a long-awaited rebound, thanks to a dynamism from Southeast Asia and Japan. The monobrand category continued its solid growth from 2022, fuelled by an ongoing appetite for in-store experiences and shifts in consumer flows. Direct retail also remains on a solid growth path, increasingly boosted by the dawn of tech-enabled consumers and omnichannel 3.0-enabled sales.

Looking ahead: expectations for 2023 and beyond

A positive scenario shows a solid growth path in 2023, driven by China’s recovery and sustained growth from Europe and the Americas, although stabilizing, with sales growth in the personal luxury goods market projected to be between 9 and 12%, versus 2022.

A realistic scenario shows overall growth more severely impacted by a slowdown in mature markets, potentially adversely influencing luxury customer spending, as well as rebounding of confidence leading to sound local consumption recovery in China. In this scenario, sales growth in the personal luxury goods market is expected to be between 5 and 8%, versus 2022.

Looking further out to 2030, the personal luxury goods market is likely to experience growth driven by solid market fundamentals, boosting its value to between €530 and €570 billion—around 2.5 times the size of the 2020 luxury market.

Key challenges and opportunities ahead

Generative AI will impact all steps of the luxury value chain, from distribution to creativity—yet only partially—as it revolutionizes business enablers across all functions. As we saw with digital channels, leaders of tomorrow will be the ones able to stay ahead of the curve and create a competitive advantage through new technologies.