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微信2022年初，中国奢侈品市场取得强势开头，但第二季度开始的各地疫情反复造成消费高开低走。同时，房地产市场降温、收入不确定性增加以及对新冠疫情的担忧削弱了消费者信心。
报告显示，几乎所有奢侈品品类都遭遇了市场下滑带来的影响，但程度各不相同。线上渠道渗透率较高的品类受到疫情的影响较弱，表现也相对较好。例如：线上渠道渗透率高达50%的奢侈美妆品类仅缩水了6%左右。
其他品类的线上渠道渗透率相对较低（10%-15%），受疫情的影响也相对较大。其中，腕表市场下滑最为严重，相比2021年缩水了20%-25%；时装和生活方式品类下滑15%-20%；珠宝和皮具品类略好，下滑10%-15%。
报告指出，非美妆品类的表现与历史趋势一致——在遭遇下滑时，珠宝和皮具品类的表现往往是最好的，其次为时装品类，而腕表品类表现最弱。
贝恩公司资深全球合伙人布鲁诺Bruno Lannes表示：“2022年，尽管大多数奢侈品牌都遭遇了业绩下滑，但也有一些品牌逆势而为，在困难重重的情况下保持平稳甚至取得增长。它们的成功得益于三大因素——首先，大品牌表现往往优于小品牌；其次，拥有标志性经典款商品的品牌表现优于主打流行款或季节款的品牌；最后，VIC客户（Very Important Customer）集中度较高的品牌表现更好。”
报告阐述了三大主要趋势以及它们对中国奢侈品市场恢复的影响。
VIC客户规模壮大
中国奢侈品市场的VIC客户集中度较高，并在2022年得到了进一步提升。相比高净值人士，入门级奢侈品消费者受到经济放缓的影响更大。2022年，疫情防控措施导致商场客流量减少，使得销售额更集中于VIC客户。全球市场VIC客户销售集中度平均值达到了40%，而一些奢侈品牌在中国市场的VIC客户销售集中度更是超过这一水平。
在线上渠道，VIC客户也是购买奢侈品的主力军。以天猫奢品领先品牌为例，一年内消费三次以上的购物者贡献了超过50%的销售额，成为增速最快的消费人群。
免税生态体系
近几年来，海南免税购物为中国奢侈品市场的繁荣发展做出了卓越贡献。但是在2022年，受疫情影响，海南免税销售额预计约为350亿元人民币，同比下降30%左右。购物者人均消费额增长8%，略微抵消了下滑产生的影响。
同时，中免集团及其附属公司通过大力推广境内电商业务来抵消航空旅行限制造成的影响。2022年上半年，有税商品贡献了中免集团将近40%的收入。
但是，折扣有税业务的增长加大了奢侈品牌跨渠道统一定价的难度。2022年12月中旬，部分领先品牌美妆商品国内官方价格和有税渠道价格之间的差距达到了60%-70%。从中短期角度来看，这一趋势可能会影响奢侈美妆品牌的品牌价值。
另外，2022年赴韩游客数量骤降超九成（对比2019年），但韩国美妆免税销售额却维持在2019年70%左右的水平。这表明代购等跨境出口交易活动依然活跃，也说明在更广的中国奢侈美妆生态体系中，韩国免税市场依然发挥十分重要的作用。
全球定价策略
中国自2020年开始采取出入境限制措施，因此大多数品牌无需统一中国市场与世界其他地区的价格。与疫情之前的情况类似，一些奢侈品在中国和欧洲之间存在较大价差。在疫情期间，只有少数品牌采取了全球统一定价的策略。
以皮具品类为例，贝恩通过抽查领先SKU的价格，发现在未计入增值税退税（10%-12%）的情况下，中国和欧洲的价差达到了25%-45%。其中，入门级奢侈品的价差高于价格更贵的奢侈品。
在其他品类中，鞋类的价差较大（25%-35%），珠宝和腕表的价差则相对较小。这是因为很多珠宝和腕表品牌早在多年前就已采取全球统一定价策略，并在中国采取出入境限制措施时依然延续了这一策略。
展望2023
贝恩相信2022年的下滑仅是暂时受挫。2023年，随着中国逐步从新冠疫情的影响中恢复，奢侈品市场会重新走上正轨。中国市场的消费基本面依旧稳健，相比其他新兴市场，中国有更多的中高收入消费者，并且到2030年数量预计会翻番。这表明中国依然是全球奢侈品市场重要的增长引擎。
贝恩公司全球合伙人邢微微表示：“随着疫情影响消退，中国市场奢侈品消费将逐步恢复，同时商场客流量和消费者信心也会迎来反弹。我们预计奢侈品销售额在2023年中就将重回2021年的水平。新的一年虽然前景乐观，但也暗藏风险。对于奢侈品牌而言，2023年的重点在于控制中国市场与世界其他地区之间较大的价差，同时提供无国界差异的客户体验和VIC客户关系管理。总而言之，能够深入体察中国奢侈品市场差异的品牌将走向成功。”
Bain & Company’s new report reveals that China’s personal luxury sales contracted 10% year on year in 2022, ending its five-year run of exponential growth. However, positive conditions are expected to return before the end of the first quarter of 2023.
Despite a strong start to 2022, Covid-related lockdowns from the second quarter created barriers to purchasing. A decline in the real estate market, higher unemployment, and anxiety around Covid also weakened consumer sentiment.
All luxury categories were affected by the decline to varying degrees. Categories with strong online penetration were less affected by lockdowns and fared better. For example, with 50% online penetration, luxury beauty only contracted 6%.
Online penetration was lower in other segments (10%–15%), leaving them more exposed during lockdowns. The watch market saw the steepest decline, with sales falling 20%–25% from 2021. Fashion and lifestyle categories experienced a 15%–20% decline. Jewelry and leather goods performed slightly better, contracting 10%–15%.
The impact across non-beauty categories was consistent with historical trends - jewelry and leather performed the best, followed by fashion, and watches trailing last.
Senior Partner at Bain & Company based in Shanghai Bruno Lannes says:"While most brands saw declines in 2022, a few stayed flat or grew despite challenging conditions. Three factors contributed to their success – first, bigger brands out-performed smaller players on average; second, brands with iconic portfolios did better than those with trendy or seasonal merchandise and finally, brands with a higher concentration of Very Important Clients (VICs) fared better”
The report outlined three major trends and how they could influence the luxury market’s comeback.
The expansion of VICs
China’s luxury market typically attracts a high concentration of VICs, and this trend expanded in 2022. The economic slowdown affected entry-level luxury consumers, more than high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs). Coupled with a decline in mall traffic due to Covid restrictions, sales skewed toward VICs in 2022. Some Chinese luxury brands achieved higher VIC sales than the global average of 40%.
VICs also played an important role in online luxury sales. Those who bought more than three times a year accounted for over 50% of sales and are the fastest-growing segment, according to leaders at Tmall Luxury Pavilion.
The duty-free ecosystem
In recent years, duty-free shopping in Hainan contributed to China’s luxury market boom. However, Covid restrictions in 2022 resulted in duty-free sales in Hainan to fall 30% to RMB 35 billion. The decline was slightly offset by an 8% increase in spending per shopper.
Meanwhile, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) and its affiliates have been aggressively pushing for domestic e-commerce options to offset declines caused by limited airline travel. Duty-paid accounted for roughly 40% of CDFG’s revenue during the first half of 2022.
However, discounted duty-paid business makes it harder for luxury brands to harmonize pricing across channels. In mid-December 2022, the price gap between domestic and duty-paid beauty prices was 60%–70% for some leading brands. In the short- to mid-term, this trend could devalue luxury beauty brands.
In addition, visits to South Korea in 2022 were over 90% lower than in 2019, but sales remained at approximately 70% of their 2019 level. This suggests significant cross-border exporting activities or daigou shopping. South Korea’s duty-free market will continue to play an important role in the broader luxury beauty ecosystem in China.
Global pricing strategies
Since the closure of Chinese borders in 2020, most brands have not sought to harmonize pricing between China and the rest of the world. Similar to pre-pandemic times, some luxury prices are now observed to have significant price gaps between China and Europe. Only a few brands maintained global pricing strategies over the pandemic years.
A sample check of leading SKUs in the leather segment found a price gap of 25%–45% between China and Europe—before accounting for value-added tax (10%–12%). The price gap was larger for entry-level products than for more expensive merchandise.
The price gap for shoes was significant (25%–35%), while jewelry and watches were less affected as many of these brands adopted global pricing strategies years ago and maintained their strategies despite borders being closed.
Outlook for 2023
Despite the 2022 reset, Bain & Company expects growth to resume in 2023 as China recovers from Covid. The fundamentals of consumption in China are still intact. Compared to other emerging markets, China is a behemoth for luxury growth. It has a larger number of middle- and high-income consumers, and these populations are projected to double by 2030.
Partner with Bain & Company’s Consumer Products and Retail practices in Hong Kong Weiwei Xing says:"Luxury consumption will recover as Covid subsides, mall traffic improves, and consumer sentiment rebounds. We expect to see 2021 sales levels sometime between the first and second half of 2023,While optimism abounds, there are also risks. Brands need to resolve pricing gaps between China and Europe before international travel resumes. In addition, as more Chinese HNWIs are residing outside of China, luxury brands must deliver excellent experiences everywhere in the world.”
"Ultimately, brands that understand the nuances of the China luxury market will succeed over time," Lannes added.