《南华早报》 2008年3月17日
作者：莊瑞豪, Nick Palmer, 徐崑

随着金融管制逐渐放宽、国外银行竞争愈发严酷，中国的银行从未面临如此巨大的挑战，也未拥有过如此高的潜在回报。在这一新环境中，他们该如何发展？不妨可以从一项针对30家最大的欧美上市金融服务企业的研究中寻求答案。

With increasing financial deregulation and stiffer foreign competition, it has never been more challenging - or potentially rewarding - for banks in China. What will it take to thrive in this new environment?

They could learn from the patterns found in a study of 30 of the largest publicly held European and United States financial services firms such as Citibank and HSBC. We identified which companies generated the highest profit growth and best total shareholder returns from 1996 to 2006. While their assets and strategies differ, investors tended to reward companies that focused on three priorities.

First, the top performers attain best-in-class earnings for each business in which they compete. The firms that concentrated on a few key customers and market segments usually outperformed their more diversified competitors. In retail banking, industry leaders such as Santander and Wells Fargo posted earnings growth that beat the sector's 17.9 per cent average.

In China, a prime example is China Merchants Bank, which has become a leader in retail and affluent banking. An analysis shows the bank has the highest customer loyalty rating among national banks.

This has been achieved by targeting the retail sector more than other domestic banks and offering products such as the "all-in-one" card, one of the first debit cards with integrated multi-currency deposit accounts.

As a result, China Merchants has the highest average deposit volume by branch, one of the fastest-growing consumer loan portfolios and is the top issuer of credit cards in China - successes all reflected in its share price.

Second, leaders benefit from strong concentration, measured by market share in a few key markets.

Companies such as Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada, whose market share in their main business was at least 60 per cent that of the market leader, had shareholder returns almost 33 per cent greater on average than their rivals with smaller market share. Likewise, firms that derived more than half their revenues from a single large geography, such as the European Union or the US, generated annual shareholder returns 50 per cent higher than more dispersed competitors.

Third, sector leaders in Europe and the US traditionally grow their businesses organically but shift to mergers and acquisitions when industry cycles favour deal-making.

For mainland banks, other motives are driving M&A activity. In recent years, companies have begun to take small steps beyond the domestic market to acquire international experience, provide services to customers with a presence outside the mainland and develop internal M&A expertise.

They have acquired small banks close to home or small stakes in larger banks and have remained passive in management style and integration.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China over the past two years has completed three deals: two majority stakes in small banks in Indonesia and Macau; and one smaller stake in South Africa's Standard Bank.

As mainland banks become more confident in their abilities to merge with their targets and with their operational expertise, deal sizes will get bigger, managers will become more active and there will be greater integration of operations.

But as these banks venture from their own market and compete with global titans, they also will face mounting pressure.

From our analysis, only three of the 10 biggest in 1996 remain in the Top 10 or survived the decade as independent organisations. The names will change again within the next few years.

Heeding lessons from today's winners, it will be companies that focus on growing their core profits and market share that will remain in control of their destiny.

Johnson Chng is a partner in Bain & Co's Beijing office and leads its Greater China financial services practice; Nick Palmer is a partner in Hong Kong and Kun Hsu is a consultant in Shanghai